Under the Lights: What Fedor Holz’s $5M Fold Actually Teaches
Fedor Holz Final Table Hand Analysis and ICM Strategy
There is a specific kind of quiet that shows up right before a great fold. You can feel the calculation settle. In the GTO LAB Podcast breakdown of the $200K Triton Invitational, that quiet arrives when Fedor Holz faces a river shove from Dan Smith with seven players left and $5 million up top. This Fedor Holz final table hand analysis is not about a flashy read. It is about structure. The fold is careful and precise.
I watched the episode and then rewatched it with a notebook. What stood out was not a tricky tell or some magic timing read. It was a clean process. Holz builds the hand using solver logic, ICM awareness, and realistic assumptions about how elite opponents pressure ranges. That mix creates a disciplined fold that protects his equity for future hands. If you are trying to make better final table decisions, there is a lot here you can copy.
Big blind defense under ICM
The hand starts with a small but important choice. Cutoff opens. Holz defends the big blind with 9♦4♦ at 38 blinds. People love to say ICM means fold more, and that is partly true. The mistake is turning it into a blanket policy. Suited hands, even the scrappy ones, keep options alive on many boards. They make strong draws, they can semi-bluff, and they do not get dominated as brutally as off-suit junk. Folding every low suited hand in deep ICM spots gives up too much.
The right question is not tight or loose. It is which suited hands still realize enough equity to defend and which ones sink you into reverse implied odds. Here, 9♦4♦ passes the test. You do not win the pot often right away, but you set yourself up to navigate profitably across three streets.

Flop: raise less, realize more
Flop is Q♠7♦3♦. Holz has a flush draw. This is where many players default to a raise. In pure chip EV, you can justify a lot of raising with combo draws. In ICM, your check-raise range deserves a haircut. Why? Because the hands that 3-bet you on the flop at a final table tend to be very real, and the cost of being wrong is higher. Keep the raise range for sets, some strong top pairs, and the very best combo draws. Let the rest call and realize.
Calling here has two benefits. First, you avoid getting 4-bet off robust equity. Second, you keep your range wide enough that future barrels do not isolate you in a value heavy node.
Turn: why elite aggressors keep firing
The turn is the 4♠. Holz pairs his 4 and still has the flush draw. Smith barrels big. This is the street where strong regulars separate themselves. Their turn range concentrates. Value hands grow stronger and the right semi-bluffs keep the pressure on. Think straight draws that picked up extra ways to win, or hands that benefit from fold equity plus decent river playability.
Holz calls again. Raising now mostly folds out the hands you beat and funnels action toward stronger value. Folding gives up too much equity with a pair and a draw. Calling forces the aggressor to prove it on the river while you keep all your outs live and maintain a manageable pot size. This is the sort of middle lane decision that does not look impressive on a broadcast, but it protects your stack against both sides of the opponent’s range. For a deeper look at how turn play polarizes and why that matters, check out our Seeing Like a Solver: Nuances of Turn Strategy
River: discipline beats curiosity
The river bricks the diamonds. Smith shoves. In solver terms, this hand class is below the calling threshold. It unblocks many of the missed draws you want your opponent to have and does not beat enough value. That is the technical answer.
Live poker adds noise. Bet sizing, cadence, and the residual sense that something felt off can pull you toward a thin hero call. The real skill is knowing when to mute that noise. Holz folds. He preserves tournament life, ladder equity, and a stack that can capitalize on future mistakes. Final tables reward that kind of patience more often than they reward curiosity.
If ICM still feels abstract, give yourself an hour with a clear explainer and a few worked examples, start here with our ICM Basics blog.
A simple framework you can reuse
When you face this family of spots, run a short checklist.
- Preflop: keep some low suited hands in your big blind defend even under ICM, but bias toward those that avoid dominated top pairs and create robust semi-bluffs.
- Flop: tighten your check-raise selection. Ask whether a raise invites a value dense 3-bet that ruins your equity realization. If yes, call more.
- Turn: expect pressure. Map which pair plus draws call profitably and which become raises only against specific profiles. Track your pool’s barreling frequency.
- River: decide your fold bins in advance. Hands near the bottom of your range, especially those that do not block value and do block bluffs, go to the muck. Let your top bluff catchers carry the weight.
What this hand teaches about study
Two habits turn moments like this from guesses into routine decisions.
First, train turn nodes in isolation. Most players do plenty of flop work and then wing it on the turn. That is why you see over folding or panic raises when the second barrel comes. Build small libraries of common turn cards and sizes for your most frequent formations. Get comfortable with which semi-bluffs persist and which stall out.
Second, rehearse ICM thresholds at real final table stack depths. Ten minutes with a tool can show you how quickly call and raise ranges compress once pay jumps bite. The point is not to memorize every combo. It is to calibrate your sense for when a line that is fine in chip EV turns into a liability under pressure.
Recommendations and credits
Fedor Holz gave three recommendations:
1. The Art of Learning, By Joshua Waitzkin.
2. Dance Life.
3. Landon McNamara – No Time to Waste
To see more clips from Triton, check out www.triton-series.com
And check out Fedor Holz’s YouTube Channel at @Pokercode